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Pre-Election Racial Studies

How Will ‘The Bradley Effect' Affect Obama?

— November 3, 2008 — Social Good
If the Bradley Effect holds true, Obama could well be outvoted tomorrow… but some are predicting a reverse Bradley Effect.

So, what is the Bradley Effect? Also known as the Wilder Effect, it is a highly relevant theory being discussed today, with the big election results only a day away.

Essentially the Bradley Effect points out that many people who say they will vote for a non-white candidate in front of others, actually put down the name of the opposing Caucasian candidate on election day.

“It was named for Tom Bradley, an African-American who lost the 1982 California governor’s race despite being ahead in voter polls going into the elections,” Wikipedia describes.

The Bradley Effect could leave us in for some unpredicted surprises, as could its opposite. A “‘reverse Bradley effect’ is that some Republicans won’t openly say they will vote for a black candidate, but then do so,” according to Wikipedia.

Image Sources: TopNews|FanPix
Trend Themes
1. Bradley Effect - Disruptive innovation opportunity: Developing strategies to accurately forecast election outcomes by accounting for the Bradley Effect and its reverse.
2. Reverse Bradley Effect - Disruptive innovation opportunity: Creating methods to identify and incentivize Republican voters who may not openly express support for a black candidate.
Industry Implications
1. Political Forecasting - Disruptive innovation opportunity: Developing advanced predictive models and algorithms to account for the Bradley Effect in election forecasting.
2. Political Campaign Management - Disruptive innovation opportunity: Implementing targeted messaging and outreach strategies to engage and win over Republican voters who may exhibit the reverse Bradley Effect.
3. Market Research - Disruptive innovation opportunity: Conducting thorough surveys and studies to measure and understand the impact of the Bradley Effect and reverse Bradley Effect on voter behavior.
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