Guesstimate Utilizes Distribution to Predict Probabilities
Alyson Wyers — January 22, 2016 — Tech
References: getguesstimate & fastcodesign
While Excel deals with certain data, this new spreadsheet software interprets probabilities. Currently in beta, Guesstimate is a new way of doing spreadsheets for things that are uncertain.
Created by software engineer Ozzie Gooen, Guesstimate helps you manage things where there isn't necessarily one right answer. The spreadsheet software uses distribution arithmetic to analyze a range of possibilities, making it easier to predict variables such as the best time to sell stock options.
Existing spreadsheets use averages rather than distribution, which doesn't take uncertainty into account. Grooen explains "this can be fine when the data comes from historic tables, but often it's just gut judgements. And in a spreadsheet, your gut judgements will look exactly like real data."
Created by software engineer Ozzie Gooen, Guesstimate helps you manage things where there isn't necessarily one right answer. The spreadsheet software uses distribution arithmetic to analyze a range of possibilities, making it easier to predict variables such as the best time to sell stock options.
Existing spreadsheets use averages rather than distribution, which doesn't take uncertainty into account. Grooen explains "this can be fine when the data comes from historic tables, but often it's just gut judgements. And in a spreadsheet, your gut judgements will look exactly like real data."
Trend Themes
1. Probabilistic Modeling - Opportunity for businesses to adopt spreadsheet software that utilizes distribution arithmetic to analyze a range of possibilities and predict variables with uncertainty.
2. Uncertainty Management - Demand for tools that help professionals manage uncertain data and make informed decisions when there isn't one right answer.
3. Data-driven Decision Making - Growing emphasis on using data-driven approaches to improve decision making and optimize outcomes in various fields and industries.
Industry Implications
1. Finance - The finance industry can leverage the probabilistic modeling capabilities of Guesstimate software to better predict stock market fluctuations and optimize investment decisions.
2. Supply Chain Management - The supply chain management industry can benefit from uncertainty management tools like Guesstimate to optimize inventory levels, forecast demand, and mitigate risks.
3. Data Analytics - The data analytics industry can utilize Guesstimate's distribution arithmetic to enhance probabilistic modeling and improve the accuracy of predictive analytics models.
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