Innovation keynote speaker Jeremy Gutsche approaches business predictions for the future very differently than many industry professionals today. While many would argue that predicting the future can be done through careful analysis of past patterns and market behavior, Jeremy warns that all predictions will in fact be wrong, and that trying to predict what the future has in store, can actually create further obstacles.
To demonstrate why predicting the future can be damaging for companies, Jeremy shares his experience as a management consultant:
"Years ago I had the opportunity to work on a high-profile scenario case with Peter Schwartz, renowned futurist and president of the Global Business Network (GBN). GBN was just acquired by the firm I worked for; the Monitor Group. This case was the first collaboration.
As a management consultant, I'd helped Fortune 500 companies to, well, make more money. As a futurist, Peter had done the same, but he had also helped Steven Speilberg design the future for Minority Report. He worked with the Department of Defense to interpret climate change as a risk to national security, and he regularly wrote for Wired magazine, including article about hydrogen power, war, capitalism, and the future,
I had a lot to learn.
My first lesson was the most important about predicting the future: you can't. If you try to predict the future, your vision will be guided by an extrapolation of the status quo. You will end up with a reasonable prediction, and at the same time, you will be completely wrong."
Predicting the future distracts you from recognizing new opportunities and tunnels your vision in terms of innovation. For more inspiring business advice and anecdotes, check out the FREE version of 'Exploiting Chaos' here.
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Jeremy Gutsche Discusses Business Predictions and Disruptive Change
Published: Mar 27, 2013 • References: jeremygutsche