This future prediction methods keynote by Daniel Burrus explains in very simple terms what steps you can take to predict the future.
Burrus begins his keynote by explaining the concept of known cycles. There are 300 known cycles in the world ranging from weather cycles to financial cycles. These cycles allow us to predict what will happen next. For instance, if it is winter now, you can predict for certain that it will be spring next.
There are also linear cycles, as Burrus calls them. These are things we are certain won't move backwards. For instance, once you got a smartphone, you're not going to go back to a "dumb phone." Similarly, the newest iPhone has a faster processor than the previous and the next one will have an even faster processor than the current model. These are things one can be certain about.
Burrus asserts that the key to predicting the future is by laying out all the certainties.
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Daniel Burrus Keynotes
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